Master Bluff Catching on the River

Hello friends, today I will give you a clear process for calling down river spots that you can start applying immediately.

This is a key topic that makes a ton of difference on your bottom line.

So if you find yourself lost in call-down spots, this will solve it.

I often see people on Discord agonizing about a tough river spot, not knowing what to do.

And I get it, not having clarity on what to do in a huge pot can get very frustrating.

Without a solid process for getting the correct answer, these mistakes compound, easily turning a winning player into a losing one.

The issue with solvers

A lot of people are turning to solvers for answers. Understandable, in lack of a better option.

I’m gonna say it clearly and simply: solvers don’t help in this spot.

People’s ranges are so different to GTO ranges by the river, that a solver breakeven call can end up losing you 4400bb/100 in reality!

No, this is not an exagerration.

Another problem with checking solvers for answers is you can’t replicate the solution in future situations.

The decision trees are way too complex to memorize.

By now it should be clear why you need a process you can bring to all river spots.

A better approach

Again, people don’t play like solvers. We need to adjust to this fact.

This is why my approach is to blend GTO principles with exploitative ones, in a practical, simple manner.

It’s the way you make the most money in poker.

For river call downs, we use GTO principles to understand the optimal play, apply them to his ranges, and use exploits to come up with a clear, profitable answer. All are explained below.

Phase 1: GTO framework

Before we talk about the call-down process, we need to set the theoretical framework from which we operate.

We go back in time to talk about minimum defense frequency (MDF).

For the sake of sticking to the point, you can google this concept if you want to understand it further.

In short, the goal of a GTO opponent is to maximize EV, while being unexploitable.

On the river, he does this by perfectly balancing his value/bluff ratio, according to the sizing he uses.

We will use this table for reference (I think I stole it from RIO like 8 years ago)

Here, with a potsize bet(1 P), the bluffs should be 50% of the value range(column A), or 33% of the total betting range(column B).

As an example, if villain bets pot and he has 10 value combos, he needs 5 bluffs to be balanced.

5 is 50% of 10 value combos (column A) and 33% of the total 15 combos betting range (column B).

This makes our bluff catchers indifferent between calling and folding. Both are 0 EV options!

The article is already long, thus I can’t go into too much detail to still have readers by the end, so pay close attention to this part.

This means if our opponent plays optimally, bluff catching makes zero money in the long run.

Yes, even when you call and the pot comes to you.

The implication?

Bluffcatching only makes you money when our opponent is clearly over bluffing. Then every bluff catcher is +EV and should be called (as long as the opponent doesn’t adjust).

Conversely, if the opponent is under bluffing, every bluff catcher is -EV and should be folded.

Phase 2: The river call-down process

I will probably need a better name for this.

For now, we’ll just call it what it is.

The call-down process has 3 main steps:

1. Use bet sizing to find villain’s optimal Value/Bluff ratio (GTO)

2. Count villain value combos to find out optimal bluff combos (GTO)

3. Call/fold by estimating if he is under/over bluffing (Exploit)

I know this sounds a bit complex so let’s go step by step with a simplified HH example.

We are in a SBvMP 3bet pot, as the MP preflop caller.

SB has just triple barreled on A♣️9♦️3♠️T♠️2♣️ and we are sitting there, probably sad, with a bluffcatcher like A♥️Q♥️.

After briefly wiping a tear to better see the numbers, we see he went all in for 75% of the pot.

Let’s apply the process we learned.

1. Use bet sizing to find villain’s optimal Value/Bluff ratio (GTO)

He used 75%. Looking at the table above, we know the bluffs should be 43% of his value hands.

2. Count villain value combos to find out optimal bluff combos (GTO)

Let’s say he has the sets 99, TT, AA, and half of AK for simplicity. We block some of that with our hand.

We end up with a total of 11 value combos. To be balanced, villain needs roughly 5 bluff combos (43%).

3. Call/fold by estimating if he is under/over bluffing (Exploit)

Everything so far is cool, but this is where we actually make money.

It all starts with estimating the value range, as this will change the bluff combos he needs to be balanced.

How many combos does he actually barrel for value (maybe he’s scared and only has 7 combos, he would only need 3 bluffs to be balanced)?

Sticking with the original scenario, he needs to bluff 5 combos for us to have a 0 EV call with our bluffcatchers. I'm not interested in calling if I can barely find 5-6 reasonable bluffs. Why?

Best case scenario I make no money (because he is balanced), worst case he is underbluffing and I lose money on every bluffcatch. Taking a fold (which is also 0 EV) is better.

If I can find 6-7+ easy bluffs based on my assumptions, call is the correct play as he is overbluffing.

Let’s say he bluffs all KQs, KJs with no spades (bc it blocks the missed flushdraw).

That’s 5 combos (we block K♥️Q♥️ with our hand).

Fold.

As you can see, accurately determining the number of value and bluff combos is a key factor for profitable decisions.

It will not be 100% perfect, but still better than solvers and way better than guessing.

To increase accuracy in our estimations, we can use information like

• population tendencies

• player reads

• hud stats

• board structure

• etc.

There you have it, this is the 3 step process I use to determine if I should call or fold in big pots on the river.

In short, your goal is to find out if he could be over bluffing. If yes, call. No, fold.

Knowing the size he used and approximating his value range are great tools to determine this.

At first, you will be slow, so here are the action steps:

1. Practice it on hands you already played: do 30 hands where you get triple barreled and write down this process for each

2. Start to apply it in-game; with enough repetition, you will be able to do this on the fly and make dramatically better river decisions

If you want to go into even greater detail, including other river deviations like these with actual sims and EV calculations, or blending GTO principles with real-life exploits to drastically improve results, check out my specialized coaching.

That is all for today.

GL at the tables,

Daniel ShowOfForce